MeritValue

BELLRING BRANDS, INC.

BRBRdata completeness 100%8 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'gainsOnRealEstateSales'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'; no data for concept 'dividendsPaid'

The thesis, from the filings

BELLRING BRANDS, INC. earns about 16% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 224% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $13.22 and $81.29 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.25B1$1.37B2$1.67B3$2B3$2.32B3
Net income$27.6M4$82.3M5$165.5M6$246.5M6$216.2M6
Operating cash flow$226.1M7$21M8$215.6M9$199.6M9$260.6M9
Capital expenditure$1.6M10$1.8M11$1.8M12$1.8M12$4.7M12
Free cash flow (derived)$224.5M7$19.2M8$213.8M9$197.8M9$255.9M9
Total debt$1.08B13$1.86B14$1.71B15$1.67B16$2.17B16
Cash & equivalents$152.6M17$35.8M18$48.4M19$70.8M20$71.8M20
Diluted shares39.7M93.8M134.1M132.3M128.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
−$35.32
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$16.82
Free cash flow it threw off
$19.91
Debt you’d be carrying
$168.76

10 shares is a claim on −$35.32 of net worth that earned you $16.82 and generated $19.91 of cash last year, against $168.76 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
16% avg · 5y
FY21 —FY22 11%FY23 16%FY24 21%FY25 16%

It earned about 16% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+224% shares · 5y

Share count is up 224% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 101% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $13.22 and $81.29 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$81.29
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$213.8M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$37.16
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$213.8M
Earnings Power Value
$13.22
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$165.5M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
book value / share count missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)9.02%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $37.16
The three cases
Bear0.0%$7.14
Base20.0%$37.16
Bull20.0%$37.16

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001772016-23-000091 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001772016-24-000108 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001772016-25-000153 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001772016-23-000091 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001772016-24-000108 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001772016-25-000153 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001772016-23-000091 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001772016-24-000108 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001772016-25-000153 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001772016-23-000091 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001772016-24-000108 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001772016-25-000153 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001772016-22-000061 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001772016-23-000091 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001772016-24-000108 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-09-30 · accession 0001772016-25-000153 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001772016-22-000061 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001772016-23-000091 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001772016-24-000108 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-09-30 · accession 0001772016-25-000153 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)