MeritValue

BP PLC

BPdata completeness 75%11 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'capex'; no data for concept 'dilutedShares'; no data for concept 'epsDiluted'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

BP PLC earns about 9% on invested capital. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$164.2B1$248.9B2$213B3$194.6B3$192.5B3
Net income$7.57B4−$2.49B5$15.2B6$381M6$55M6
Operating cash flow$23.6B7$40.9B8$32B9$27.3B9$24.5B9
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt$61.2B10$46.9B11$52B12$59.5B13$58B13
Cash & equivalents$30.7B14$29.2B15$33B15$39.2B15$36.6B15
Diluted shares—————

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
9% avg · 5y
FY21 8%FY22 9%FY23 18%FY24 4%FY25 5%

It earned an average 9% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
— shares · 5y

Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
no diluted share count
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000313807-24-000008 (Revenue)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000313807-25-000007 (Revenue)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000313807-26-000006 (Revenue)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000313807-24-000008 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000313807-25-000007 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000313807-26-000006 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000313807-24-000008 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000313807-25-000007 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000313807-26-000006 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000313807-23-000009 (Borrowings)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000313807-24-000008 (Borrowings)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000313807-25-000007 (Borrowings)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000313807-26-000006 (Borrowings)
  14. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000313807-25-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  15. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000313807-26-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalents)