MeritValue

BOX INC

BOXdata completeness 100%13 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'gainsOnRealEstateSales'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'; no data for concept 'dividendsPaid'

The thesis, from the filings

The estimate methods put fair value between $7.94 and $41.41 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025FY 2026
Revenue$874.3M1$990.9M2$1.04B3$1.09B3$1.18B3
Net income−$41.5M4$26.8M5$129M6$244.6M6$115.4M6
Operating cash flow$234.8M7$298M8$318.7M9$332.3M9$356.5M9
Capital expenditure—$5.03M10$4.7M11$2.57M11$6.07M11
Free cash flow (derived)—$292.9M8$314M9$329.7M9$350.4M9
Total debt$367.5M12$369.4M13$370.8M14$652.5M15$451M15
Cash & equivalents$416.3M16$428.5M17$383.7M18$624.6M19$375.1M19
Diluted shares155.6M150.2M148.6M148.6M149.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
−$20.06
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$7.74
Free cash flow it threw off
$23.49
Debt you’d be carrying
$30.24

10 shares is a claim on −$20.06 of net worth that earned you $7.74 and generated $23.49 of cash last year, against $30.24 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
— avg · 5y

Not enough data in the filings for a return-on-capital reading.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−4% shares · 5y

Share count is down 4% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 23% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $7.94 and $41.41 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$41.41
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$329.7M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$38.16
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$329.7M
Earnings Power Value
$7.94
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$115.4M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
book value / share count missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)9.02%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $38.16
The three cases
Bear0.0%$30.66
Base5.0%$38.16
Bull10.0%$47.17

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-31 · accession 0000950170-24-029241 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-31 · accession 0000950170-25-036261 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-01-31 · accession 0001193125-26-098466 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-31 · accession 0000950170-24-029241 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-31 · accession 0000950170-25-036261 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-01-31 · accession 0001193125-26-098466 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-31 · accession 0000950170-24-029241 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-31 · accession 0000950170-25-036261 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-01-31 · accession 0001193125-26-098466 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-31 · accession 0000950170-25-036261 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2024-01-31 · accession 0001193125-26-098466 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-31 · accession 0000950170-23-007573 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-31 · accession 0000950170-24-029241 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2024-01-31 · accession 0000950170-25-036261 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2025-01-31 · accession 0001193125-26-098466 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-31 · accession 0000950170-23-007573 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-31 · accession 0000950170-24-029241 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2024-01-31 · accession 0000950170-25-036261 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2025-01-31 · accession 0001193125-26-098466 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)