MeritValue

Boot Barn Holdings, Inc.

BOOTdata completeness 88%14 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Boot Barn Holdings, Inc. earns about 22% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $61.01 and $232.21 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025FY 2026
Revenue$1.49B1$1.66B2$1.67B3$1.91B3$2.25B3
Net income$192.5M4$170.6M5$147M6$180.9M6$225.9M6
Operating cash flow$88.9M7$88.9M8$236.1M9$147.5M9$304.9M9
Capital expenditure$60.4M10$124.5M11$118.8M12$148.3M12$178.6M12
Free cash flow (derived)$28.4M7−$35.6M8$117.3M9−$753,0009$126.3M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$20.7M13$18.2M14$75.8M15$69.8M16$141M16
Diluted shares30.4M30.4M30.6M30.8M30.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$429.04
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$73.49
Free cash flow it threw off
$41.11
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $429.04 of net worth that earned you $73.49 and generated $41.11 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
22% avg · 5y
FY22 33%FY23 22%FY24 17%FY25 17%FY26 19%

It earned about 22% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+1% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $61.01 and $232.21 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$232.21
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$117.3M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$129.02
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$117.3M
Earnings Power Value
$61.01
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$180.9M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$84.23
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $129.02
The three cases
Bear0.0%$59.12
Base20.0%$129.02
Bull20.0%$129.02

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-03-26 · accession 0001558370-24-008176 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-04-01 · accession 0001558370-25-007889 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-03-30 · accession 0001104659-26-061346 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-03-26 · accession 0001558370-24-008176 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-04-01 · accession 0001558370-25-007889 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-03-30 · accession 0001104659-26-061346 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-03-26 · accession 0001558370-24-008176 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-04-01 · accession 0001558370-25-007889 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-03-30 · accession 0001104659-26-061346 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-03-26 · accession 0001558370-24-008176 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-04-01 · accession 0001558370-25-007889 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-03-30 · accession 0001104659-26-061346 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-03-26 · accession 0001558370-23-010209 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-04-01 · accession 0001558370-24-008176 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-03-30 · accession 0001558370-25-007889 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2025-03-29 · accession 0001104659-26-061346 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)