MeritValue

DMC Global Inc.

BOOMdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'gainsOnRealEstateSales'

The thesis, from the filings

DMC Global Inc. earns about -4% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 13% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $57.15 and $107.43 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$260.1M1$654.1M2$719.2M3$642.9M3$609.8M3
Net income−$202,0004$12.2M5$26.3M6−$94.5M6−$13.5M6
Operating cash flow−$12.8M7$44.9M8$65.9M9$46.6M9$53.5M9
Capital expenditure$8.66M10$18.6M11$16M12$17.3M12$16.5M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$21.5M7$26.4M8$50M9$29.3M9$37M9
Total debt$294.9M13$265.6M14$231.7M15$141.6M16$101.3M16
Cash & equivalents$30.8M17$25.1M18$31M19$14.3M20$31.9M20
Diluted shares17.6M19.4M19.5M19.7M19.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$121.56
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$6.76
Free cash flow it threw off
$18.6
Debt you’d be carrying
$50.87

10 shares is a claim on $121.56 of net worth that earned you −$6.76 and generated $18.6 of cash last year, against $50.87 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-4% avg · 5y
FY21 -0%FY22 3%FY23 7%FY24 -29%FY25 -2%

It earned about -4% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+13% shares · 5y

Share count is up 13% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 66% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $57.15 and $107.43 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$107.43
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$37M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$57.15
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$37M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $57.15
The three cases
Bear0.0%$23.09
Base20.0%$57.15
Bull20.0%$57.15

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000034067-24-000025 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000034067-25-000028 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000034067-26-000009 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000034067-24-000025 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000034067-25-000028 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000034067-26-000009 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000034067-24-000025 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000034067-25-000028 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000034067-26-000009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000034067-24-000025 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000034067-25-000028 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000034067-26-000009 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000034067-23-000033 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000034067-24-000025 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000034067-25-000028 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000034067-26-000009 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000034067-23-000033 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000034067-24-000025 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000034067-25-000028 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000034067-26-000009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)