MeritValue

Bolt Biotherapeutics, Inc.

BOLTdata completeness 88%6 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

Bolt Biotherapeutics, Inc. earns about -78% on equity, and has bought back 94% of its shares over 5 years. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.26M1$5.73M2$7.88M3$7.69M4$7.7M4
Net income−$98.6M5−$88.1M6−$69.2M7−$63.1M8−$33.4M8
Operating cash flow−$57.1M9−$76.5M10−$69.5M11−$61.3M12−$39.9M12
Capital expenditure$2.34M13$1.95M14$206,00015$41,00016$72,00016
Free cash flow (derived)−$59.4M9−$78.5M10−$69.7M11−$61.3M12−$39.9M12
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$27.4M17$9.24M18$10.8M19$7.21M20$11.7M20
Diluted shares33.2M37.4M37.8M1.9M1.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$141.74
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$178.49
Free cash flow it threw off
−$213.5
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $141.74 of net worth that earned you −$178.49 and generated −$213.5 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-78% avg · 5y
FY21 -39%FY22 -51%FY23 -61%FY24 -110%FY25 -126%

It earned an average -78% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−94% shares · 5y

Share count is down 94% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-010613 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-034692 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-043873 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-104121 (Revenues)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-010613 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-034692 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-043873 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-104121 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-010613 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-034692 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-043873 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-104121 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-010613 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-034692 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-043873 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-104121 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-010613 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-034692 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-043873 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-104121 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)