MeritValue

Bank of New York Mellon Corp

BNYdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'depreciationAmortization'; no data for concept 'gainsOnRealEstateSales'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'

The thesis, from the filings

Bank of New York Mellon Corp earns about 9% on equity, barely covering its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 16% of its shares over 5 years. The estimate methods put fair value between $53.85 and $105.86 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$15.9B1$16.5B2$17.7B3$18.6B3$20.1B3
Net income$3.76B4$2.56B5$3.3B6$4.53B6$5.55B6
Operating cash flow$2.84B7$15.1B8$5.91B9$687M9$6.73B9
Capital expenditure$1.22B10$1.35B11$1.22B12$1.47B12$1.55B12
Free cash flow (derived)$1.62B7$13.7B8$4.69B9−$782M9$5.18B9
Total debt$25.9B13$30.5B14$31.3B15$31.2B16$33.9B16
Cash & equivalents$6.06B17$5.03B18$4.92B19$4.18B19$5.11B19
Diluted shares856.4M814.8M787.8M748.1M716.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$618.28
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$77.42
Free cash flow it threw off
$72.23
Debt you’d be carrying
$472.65

10 shares is a claim on $618.28 of net worth that earned you $77.42 and generated $72.23 of cash last year, against $472.65 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
9% avg · 5y
FY21 9%FY22 6%FY23 8%FY24 11%FY25 13%

It earned about 9% on equity against a ~9% cost of capital — roughly what it costs to fund the business, so the numbers show no clear edge.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−16% shares · 5y

Share count is down 16% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 31% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $53.85 and $105.86 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$105.86
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth7.1%
  • fcfBase$4.69B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$85.27
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth7.1%
  • fcfBase$4.69B
Earnings Power Value
$53.85
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$3.76B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$103.54
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years7.1%
Discount rate (WACC)9.02%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $85.27
The three cases
Bear0.0%$52.17
Base7.1%$85.27
Bull12.1%$114.01

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 7.1%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001390777-24-000051 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001390777-25-000046 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001390777-26-000033 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001390777-24-000051 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001390777-25-000046 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001390777-26-000033 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001390777-24-000051 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001390777-25-000046 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001390777-26-000033 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001390777-24-000051 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001390777-25-000046 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001390777-26-000033 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001390777-23-000033 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001390777-24-000051 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001390777-25-000046 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001390777-26-000033 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001390777-24-000051 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001390777-25-000046 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001390777-26-000033 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)