MeritValue

BioNTech SE

BNTXdata completeness 88%9 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

BioNTech SE earns about 50% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between €39.89 and €48.36 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue€19B1€17.3B2€3.82B3€2.75B3€2.87B3
Net income€10.3B4€9.43B5€930.3M6−€665.3M6−€1.14B6
Operating cash flow€889.7M7€13.6B8€5.37B9€207.7M9€456M9
Capital expenditure€127.5M10€329.2M11€249.4M12€286.5M12€175.1M12
Free cash flow (derived)€762.2M7€13.2B8€5.12B9−€78.8M9€280.9M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents€1.69B13€13.9B14€11.7B14€9.76B14€7.68B14
Diluted shares244.0M243.3M240.6M240.4M241.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
€795.37
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−€47
Free cash flow it threw off
€11.62
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on €795.37 of net worth that earned you −€47 and generated €11.62 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
50% avg · 5y
FY21 101%FY22 153%FY23 11%FY24 -6%FY25 -7%

It earned about 50% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−1% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between €39.89 and €48.36 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
€47.11
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase€280.9M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
€48.36
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase€280.9M
Earnings Power Value
€39.89
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings€930.3M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth €48.36
The three cases
Bear0.0%€48.36
Base0.0%€48.36
Bull5.0%€52.38

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001776985-24-000027 (RevenueFromContractsWithCustomers)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001776985-25-000013 (RevenueFromContractsWithCustomers)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001776985-26-000017 (RevenueFromContractsWithCustomers)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001776985-24-000027 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001776985-25-000013 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001776985-26-000017 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001776985-24-000027 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001776985-25-000013 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001776985-26-000017 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001776985-24-000027 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001776985-25-000013 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001776985-26-000017 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001776985-25-000013 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  14. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001776985-26-000017 (CashAndCashEquivalents)