MeritValue

BRISTOL MYERS SQUIBB CO

BMYdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'

The thesis, from the filings

BRISTOL MYERS SQUIBB CO earns about 5% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 9% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $35.22 and $47.64 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$46.4B1$46.2B2$45B3$48.3B3$48.2B3
Net income$6.99B4$6.33B5$8.03B6−$8.95B6$7.05B6
Operating cash flow$16.2B7$13.1B8$13.9B9$15.2B9$14.2B9
Capital expenditure$973M10$1.12B11$1.21B12$1.25B12$1.31B12
Free cash flow (derived)$15.2B7$11.9B8$12.7B9$13.9B9$12.8B9
Total debt$98.6B13$86.4B14$85.3B15$103B16$94.2B16
Cash & equivalents$14B17$9.12B18$11.5B19$10.3B20$10.2B20
Diluted shares2.25B2.15B2.08B2.03B2.04B

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$90.6
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$34.6
Free cash flow it threw off
$63
Debt you’d be carrying
$461.87

10 shares is a claim on $90.6 of net worth that earned you $34.6 and generated $63 of cash last year, against $461.87 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
5% avg · 5y
FY21 7%FY22 7%FY23 9%FY24 -6%FY25 7%

It earned about 5% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−9% shares · 5y

Share count is down 9% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $35.22 and $47.64 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$40.99
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$12.8B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$47.64
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$12.8B
Earnings Power Value
$35.22
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$6.99B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$26.56
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)9.02%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $47.64
The three cases
Bear0.0%$47.64
Base0.0%$47.64
Bull5.0%$69.1

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000014272-24-000044 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000014272-25-000039 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000014272-26-000004 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000014272-24-000044 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000014272-25-000039 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000014272-26-000004 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000014272-24-000044 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000014272-25-000039 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000014272-26-000004 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000014272-24-000044 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000014272-25-000039 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000014272-26-000004 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000014272-23-000046 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000014272-24-000044 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000014272-25-000039 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000014272-26-000004 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000014272-23-000046 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000014272-24-000044 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000014272-25-000039 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000014272-26-000004 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)