MeritValue

Bank of Marin Bancorp

BMRCdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

Bank of Marin Bancorp earns about 21% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 11% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $12.93 and $44.52 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$108.4M1$130M2$139.5M3$141.3M3$152.4M3
Net income$33.2M4$46.6M5$19.9M6−$8.41M6−$35.7M6
Operating cash flow$45.3M7$55.3M8$35.7M9$28.4M9$39.1M9
Capital expenditure$1.04M10$2.27M11$1.75M12$520,00012$1.82M12
Free cash flow (derived)$44.2M7$53M8$33.9M9$27.8M9$37.3M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$347.6M13$45.4M14$30.5M14$137.3M14$225.3M14
Diluted shares14.4M16.0M16.0M16.0M15.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$247.56
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$22.38
Free cash flow it threw off
$23.37
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $247.56 of net worth that earned you −$22.38 and generated $23.37 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
21% avg · 5y
FY21 35%FY22 13%FY23 12%FY24 21%FY25 25%

It earned about 21% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+11% shares · 5y

Share count is up 11% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $12.93 and $44.52 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$42.24
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$33.9M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$44.52
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$33.9M
Earnings Power Value
$12.93
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$19.9M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $44.52
The three cases
Bear0.0%$44.52
Base0.0%$44.52
Bull5.0%$51.88

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001403475-24-000012 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001403475-25-000026 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001403475-26-000018 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001403475-24-000012 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001403475-25-000026 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001403475-26-000018 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001403475-24-000012 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001403475-25-000026 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001403475-26-000018 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001403475-24-000012 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001403475-25-000026 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001403475-26-000018 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001403475-25-000026 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001403475-26-000018 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)