MeritValue

BADGER METER INC

BMIdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

BADGER METER INC earns about 19% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 100687% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $32.45 and $286.85 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$505.2M1$565.6M2$703.6M3$826.6M3$916.7M3
Net income$60.9M4$66.5M5$92.6M6$124.9M6$141.6M6
Operating cash flow$87.5M7$82.5M8$110.1M9$155M9$183.7M9
Capital expenditure$6.75M10$5.89M11$12M12$12.8M12$14M12
Free cash flow (derived)$80.8M7$76.6M8$98.1M9$142.2M9$169.7M9
Total debt$013$014$015$016$016
Cash & equivalents$87.2M17————
Diluted shares29,33829,37629.5M29.5M29.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$241.23
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$47.9
Free cash flow it threw off
$57.38
Debt you’d be carrying
$0

10 shares is a claim on $241.23 of net worth that earned you $47.9 and generated $57.38 of cash last year, against $0 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
19% avg · 5y
FY21 19%FY22 15%FY23 19%FY24 22%FY25 20%

It earned about 19% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+100687% shares · 5y

Share count is up 100687% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $32.45 and $286.85 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$286.85
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$142.2M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$156.81
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$142.2M
Earnings Power Value
$32.45
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$92.6M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$50.99
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $156.81
The three cases
Bear0.0%$68.72
Base20.0%$156.81
Bull20.0%$156.81

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-016245 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-020889 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-054739 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-016245 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-020889 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-054739 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-016245 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-020889 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-054739 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-016245 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-020889 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-054739 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-003676 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-016245 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-020889 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-054739 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001564590-22-006284 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)