MeritValue

Bumble Inc.

BMBLdata completeness 88%7 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'capex'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

Bumble Inc. earns about -17% on invested capital, and has bought back 43% of its shares over 5 years. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$760.9M1$903.5M2$1.05B3$1.07B3$965.7M3
Net income$309.8M4−$79.7M5−$4.21M6−$557M6−$693.1M6
Operating cash flow$104.8M7$132.9M8$182.1M9$123.4M9$250.4M9
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt$1.27B10$1.26B11$1.25B12$1.24B13$1.18B13
Cash & equivalents$369.2M14$402.6M15$355.6M16$204.3M16$175.8M16
Diluted shares192.7M129.4M134.9M120.8M110.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$51.76
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$62.94
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$107.06

10 shares is a claim on $51.76 of net worth that earned you −$62.94 last year, against $107.06 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-17% avg · 5y
FY21 -5%FY22 -4%FY23 0%FY24 -32%FY25 -43%

It earned an average -17% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−43% shares · 5y

Share count is down 43% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-022104 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-030151 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001830043-26-000027 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-022104 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-030151 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001830043-26-000027 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-022104 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-030151 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001830043-26-000027 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-005080 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-022104 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-030151 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001830043-26-000027 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-022104 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-030151 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001830043-26-000027 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)