MeritValue

Backblaze, Inc.

BLZEdata completeness 88%6 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Backblaze, Inc. earns about -88% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 176% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $3.93 and $4.22 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$67.5M1$85.2M2$102M3$127.6M3$145.8M3
Net income−$21.7M4−$51.4M5−$59.7M6−$48.5M6−$25.6M6
Operating cash flow$3.52M7−$13.8M8−$7.35M9$12.5M9$23.5M9
Capital expenditure$7.56M10$7.35M11$5.51M12$1.71M12$4.69M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$4.04M7−$21.1M8−$12.9M9$10.8M9$18.9M9
Total debt$013————
Cash & equivalents$104.8M14$6.69M15$12.5M16$45.8M16$29.2M16
Diluted shares20.3M31.7M36.0M43.5M56.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$14.81
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$4.56
Free cash flow it threw off
$3.35
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $14.81 of net worth that earned you −$4.56 and generated $3.35 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-88% avg · 5y
FY21 —FY22 -60%FY23 -136%FY24 -120%FY25 -37%

It earned about -88% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+176% shares · 5y

Share count is up 176% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $3.93 and $4.22 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$4.22
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$10.8M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$3.93
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$10.8M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $3.93
The three cases
Bear0.0%$3.26
Base5.0%$3.93
Bull10.0%$4.72

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001462056-23-000119 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001462056-24-000033 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-016395 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001462056-23-000119 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001462056-24-000033 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-016395 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001462056-23-000119 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001462056-24-000033 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-016395 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001462056-23-000119 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001462056-24-000033 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-016395 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-22-007434 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001462056-23-000119 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001462056-24-000033 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-016395 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)