MeritValue

BELITE BIO, INC

BLTEdata completeness 75%6 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'revenue'; no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

BELITE BIO, INC earns about -379% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 250% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue—————
Net income−$9.67M1−$12.6M2−$31.6M3−$36.1M3−$77.6M3
Operating cash flow−$7.47M4−$11.5M5−$29.8M6−$29.2M6−$37M6
Capital expenditure$74,0007$394,0008$63,0009$116,0009$71,0009
Free cash flow (derived)−$7.55M4−$11.9M5−$29.9M6−$29.4M6−$37.1M6
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$17.3M10$42.1M11$88.2M12$31.7M13$352.9M13
Diluted shares9.6M20.0M26.6M30.5M33.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$229.73
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$23.14
Free cash flow it threw off
−$11.05
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $229.73 of net worth that earned you −$23.14 and generated −$11.05 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-379% avg · 5y
FY21 —FY22 —FY23 -1098%FY24 -25%FY25 -15%

It earned an average -379% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+250% shares · 5y

Share count is up 250% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-033149 (NetIncomeLoss)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000356 (NetIncomeLoss)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-037374 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-033149 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000356 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-037374 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-033149 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000356 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-037374 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-23-040145 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-033149 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000356 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-037374 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)