MeritValue

Bullish

BLSHdata completeness 88%3 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

Bullish earns about 33% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 34% over 3 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $5.4 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$116.5B1$250.2B1$244.8B1
Net income$1.3B2$78.5M2−$764.7M2
Operating cash flow−$126.7M3−$30M3$28.6M3
Capital expenditure$966,0004$391,0004$9.93M4
Free cash flow (derived)−$127.6M3−$30.4M3$18.7M3
Total debt———
Cash & equivalents$112.9M5$31.5M5$87.9M5
Diluted shares112.5M112.7M150.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$213.23
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$50.7
Free cash flow it threw off
$1.24
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $213.23 of net worth that earned you −$50.7 and generated $1.24 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
33% avg · 3y
FY23 111%FY24 5%FY25 -19%

It earned an average 33% on invested capital over 3 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+34% shares · 3y

Share count is up 34% over 3 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
$5.4
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$78.5M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-007417 (Revenue)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-007417 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-007417 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-007417 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-007417 (CashAndCashEquivalents)