MeritValue

Blue Line Protection Group, Inc.

BLPGdata completeness 88%15 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

The estimate methods put fair value between $0.12 and $0.24 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2020FY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024
Revenue$4.13M1$4.66M2$3.88M3$4.41M4$4.37M4
Net income−$934,5775$1.75M6−$294,5287$351,1818$241,7418
Operating cash flow$463,2549$903,37410$369,47111$745,54612$269,52412
Capital expenditure$39,47013$66,00214$33,72515$117,21616$7,02516
Free cash flow (derived)$423,7849$837,37210$335,74611$628,33012$262,49912
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$244,75017$662,17718$280,07319$585,78020$350,89020
Diluted shares8.0M12.3M8.4M10.9M21.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
−$0.29
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$0.11
Free cash flow it threw off
$0.12
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on −$0.29 of net worth that earned you $0.11 and generated $0.12 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
— avg · 5y

Not enough data in the filings for a return-on-capital reading.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+168% shares · 5y

Share count is up 168% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $0.12 and $0.24 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$0.22
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$335,746
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$0.24
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$335,746
Earnings Power Value
$0.12
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$241,741
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
book value / share count missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $0.24
The three cases
Bear0.0%$0.24
Base0.0%$0.24
Bull5.0%$0.29

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K/A · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001493152-22-010205 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001493152-23-010032 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-012110 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001641172-25-001434 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K/A · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001493152-22-010205 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001493152-23-010032 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-012110 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001641172-25-001434 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K/A · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001493152-22-010205 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001493152-23-010032 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-012110 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001641172-25-001434 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K/A · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001493152-22-010205 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001493152-23-010032 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-012110 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001641172-25-001434 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 10-K/A · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001493152-22-010205 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001493152-23-010032 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-012110 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001641172-25-001434 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)