MeritValue

Bloomin' Brands, Inc.

BLMNdata completeness 100%16 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'

The thesis, from the filings

Bloomin' Brands, Inc. earns about 10% on invested capital, barely covering its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 21% of its shares over 5 years. The estimate methods put fair value between $6.26 and $12.26 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$4.12B1$4.01B2$4.17B3$3.95B3$3.96B3
Net income$215.6M4$101.9M5$247.4M6−$128M6$8.24M6
Operating cash flow$402.5M7$390.9M8$532.4M9$228.1M9$276.7M9
Capital expenditure$122.8M10$192.8M11$282.2M12$220.7M12$179.9M12
Free cash flow (derived)$279.6M7$198.1M8$250.2M9$7.4M9$96.8M9
Total debt$793.1M13$828.5M14$780.7M15$1.03B16$787.4M16
Cash & equivalents$87.6M17$84.7M18$111.5M19$70.1M20$59.5M20
Diluted shares107.8M98.5M96.5M85.9M85.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$39.11
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$0.97
Free cash flow it threw off
$11.34
Debt you’d be carrying
$92.3

10 shares is a claim on $39.11 of net worth that earned you $0.97 and generated $11.34 of cash last year, against $92.3 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
10% avg · 5y
FY21 24%FY22 9%FY23 20%FY24 -4%FY25 -1%

It earned about 10% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — roughly what it costs to fund the business, so the numbers show no clear edge.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−21% shares · 5y

Share count is down 21% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $6.26 and $12.26 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$6.26
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$96.8M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$7.46
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$96.8M
Earnings Power Value
$12.26
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$101.9M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$2.97
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)9.02%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $7.46
The three cases
Bear0.0%$7.46
Base0.0%$7.46
Bull5.0%$11.32

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-26 · accession 0001546417-24-000037 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-25 · accession 0001546417-25-000034 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001546417-26-000009 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-26 · accession 0001546417-24-000037 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-25 · accession 0001546417-25-000034 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001546417-26-000009 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-26 · accession 0001546417-24-000037 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-25 · accession 0001546417-25-000034 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001546417-26-000009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-26 · accession 0001546417-24-000037 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-25 · accession 0001546417-25-000034 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001546417-26-000009 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-26 · accession 0001546417-22-000006 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-25 · accession 0001546417-24-000037 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001546417-25-000034 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-29 · accession 0001546417-26-000009 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-26 · accession 0001546417-23-000009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-25 · accession 0001546417-24-000037 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001546417-25-000034 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-29 · accession 0001546417-26-000009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)