MeritValue

BillionToOne, Inc.

BLLNdata completeness 100%3 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'gainsOnRealEstateSales'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

BillionToOne, Inc. earns about 2% on equity, but has diluted owners by 117% over 3 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$71.7M1$152.6M1$305.1M1
Net income−$82.7M2−$41.6M2$7.45M2
Operating cash flow−$53.7M3−$41.4M3$24.6M3
Capital expenditure$6.17M4$5.4M4$8.88M4
Free cash flow (derived)−$59.8M3−$46.8M3$15.7M3
Total debt—$103M5$114.5M5
Cash & equivalents$97.3M6$191.5M7$496M7
Diluted shares9.8M10.1M21.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$226.14
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$3.51
Free cash flow it threw off
$7.4
Debt you’d be carrying
$53.91

10 shares is a claim on $226.14 of net worth that earned you $3.51 and generated $7.4 of cash last year, against $53.91 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
2% avg · 3y
FY23 —FY24 —FY25 2%

It earned an average 2% on equity over 3 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+117% shares · 3y

Share count is up 117% over 3 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 11% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
$8.44
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0002070849-26-000017 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0002070849-26-000017 (NetIncomeLoss)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0002070849-26-000017 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0002070849-26-000017 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0002070849-26-000017 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0002070849-26-000017 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0002070849-26-000017 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)