MeritValue

BLACKBAUD INC

BLKBdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'gainsOnRealEstateSales'

The thesis, from the filings

BLACKBAUD INC earns about -0% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $0.64 and $106.83 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$927.7M1$1.06B2$1.11B3$1.15B3$1.13B3
Net income$5.7M4−$45.4M5$3.02M6−$299.5M6$115M6
Operating cash flow$213.7M7$203.9M8$199.6M9$296M9$265.6M9
Capital expenditure$11.7M10$12.3M11$4.69M12$7.44M12$7.77M12
Free cash flow (derived)$202M7$191.6M8$194.9M9$288.5M9$257.8M9
Total debt$1.92B13$1.72B14$1.56B15$2.15B16$2.22B16
Cash & equivalents$55.1M17$31.7M18$31.3M19$67.6M20$38.9M20
Diluted shares48.2M51.6M53.7M50.6M48.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$17.55
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$23.72
Free cash flow it threw off
$53.18
Debt you’d be carrying
$458.04

10 shares is a claim on $17.55 of net worth that earned you $23.72 and generated $53.18 of cash last year, against $458.04 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-0% avg · 5y
FY21 1%FY22 -1%FY23 1%FY24 -9%FY25 8%

It earned about -0% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+0% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has risen 16% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $0.64 and $106.83 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$106.83
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth10.4%
  • fcfBase$257.8M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$71.66
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth10.4%
  • fcfBase$257.8M
Earnings Power Value
$0.64
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$3.02M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$9.85
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years10.4%
Discount rate (WACC)9.02%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $71.66
The three cases
Bear0.0%$29.98
Base10.4%$71.66
Bull15.4%$97.76

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 10.4%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001280058-24-000013 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001280058-25-000010 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001280058-26-000006 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001280058-24-000013 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001280058-25-000010 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001280058-26-000006 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001280058-24-000013 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001280058-25-000010 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001280058-26-000006 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001280058-24-000013 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001280058-25-000010 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001280058-26-000006 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001280058-23-000006 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001280058-24-000013 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001280058-25-000010 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001280058-26-000006 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001280058-23-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001280058-24-000013 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001280058-25-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001280058-26-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)