MeritValue

Builders FirstSource, Inc.

BLDRdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Builders FirstSource, Inc. earns about 32% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 45% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $142.77 and $192.28 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$19.9B1$22.7B2$17.1B3$16.4B3$15.2B3
Net income$1.73B4$2.75B5$1.54B6$1.08B6$435.2M6
Operating cash flow$1.74B7$3.6B8$2.31B9$1.87B9$1.22B9
Capital expenditure$227.9M10$340.2M11$476.3M12$380.6M12$362.6M12
Free cash flow (derived)$1.52B7$3.26B8$1.83B9$1.49B9$853.3M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$42.6M13$80.4M14$66.2M15$153.6M16$181.8M16
Diluted shares203.5M163.5M129.0M119.0M111.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$389.21
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$38.92
Free cash flow it threw off
$76.31
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $389.21 of net worth that earned you $38.92 and generated $76.31 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
32% avg · 5y
FY21 36%FY22 56%FY23 33%FY24 26%FY25 10%

It earned about 32% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−45% shares · 5y

Share count is down 45% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $142.77 and $192.28 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$177.92
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$1.49B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$192.28
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$1.49B
Earnings Power Value
$142.77
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$1.54B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$58.37
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $192.28
The three cases
Bear0.0%$192.28
Base0.0%$192.28
Bull5.0%$238.42

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-018584 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-023953 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-054643 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-018584 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-023953 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-054643 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-018584 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-023953 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-054643 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-018584 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-023953 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-054643 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-004939 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-018584 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-023953 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-054643 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)