MeritValue

Blue Bird Corp

BLBDdata completeness 100%15 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'gainsOnRealEstateSales'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'

The thesis, from the filings

Blue Bird Corp earns about 36% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 6% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $7.43 and $68.54 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$800.6M1$800.6M2$1.13B3$1.35B3$1.48B3
Net income−$45.8M4−$45.8M5$23.8M6$105.5M6$127.7M6
Operating cash flow−$24.4M7−$24.4M8$119.9M9$111.1M9$176.2M9
Capital expenditure$6.45M10$6.45M11$8.52M12$15.3M12$22.9M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$30.9M7−$30.9M8$111.4M9$95.8M9$153.3M9
Total debt$150.2M13$150.2M13$130.3M14$95M15$90.3M15
Cash & equivalents$10.5M16$10.5M17$79M18$127.7M19$229.3M19
Diluted shares31.0M31.0M32.3M33.3M32.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$77.67
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$38.84
Free cash flow it threw off
$46.63
Debt you’d be carrying
$27.47

10 shares is a claim on $77.67 of net worth that earned you $38.84 and generated $46.63 of cash last year, against $27.47 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
36% avg · 5y
FY22 -21%FY22 -21%FY23 31%FY24 80%FY25 112%

It earned about 36% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+6% shares · 5y

Share count is up 6% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 40% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $7.43 and $68.54 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$68.54
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$111.4M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$63.54
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$111.4M
Earnings Power Value
$7.43
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$23.8M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$26.44
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)9.02%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $63.54
The three cases
Bear0.0%$51.99
Base5.0%$63.54
Bull10.0%$77.35

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001589526-24-000119 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-10-01 · accession 0001589526-23-000124 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001589526-25-000100 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001589526-24-000119 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-10-01 · accession 0001589526-23-000124 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001589526-25-000100 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001589526-24-000119 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-10-01 · accession 0001589526-23-000124 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001589526-25-000100 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001589526-24-000119 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-10-01 · accession 0001589526-23-000124 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001589526-25-000100 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-10-01 · accession 0001589526-23-000124 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001589526-24-000119 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-09-28 · accession 0001589526-25-000100 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001589526-25-000100 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-10-01 · accession 0001589526-23-000124 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001589526-24-000119 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-09-28 · accession 0001589526-25-000100 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)