BLACKLINE, INC.
BLdata completeness 88%12 fiscal years on fileData notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'
BLACKLINE, INC. earns about 0% on equity, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 13% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $3.85 and $152.03 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $425.7M1 | $522.9M2 | $590M3 | $653.3M3 | $700.4M3 |
| Net income | −$115.2M4 | −$29.4M5 | $52.8M6 | $161.2M6 | $24.5M6 |
| Operating cash flow | $80.1M7 | $56M8 | $126.6M9 | $190.8M9 | $169.6M9 |
| Capital expenditure | $8.73M10 | $11M11 | $5.95M12 | $2.13M12 | $8.07M12 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $71.4M7 | $45M8 | $120.7M9 | $188.7M9 | $161.5M9 |
| Total debt | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cash & equivalents | $539.7M13 | $201M14 | $271.1M15 | $885.9M15 | $390M15 |
| Diluted shares | 58.4M | 59.5M | 72.0M | 73.5M | 65.9M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $50.41 of net worth that earned you $3.72 and generated $24.5 of cash last year.
It earned about 0% on equity against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is up 13% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $3.85 and $152.03 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth20.0%
- fcfBase$161.5M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth20.0%
- fcfBase$161.5M
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$24.5M
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $40.92 |
| Base | 20.0% | $85.79 |
| Bull | 20.0% | $85.79 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001666134-24-000003 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001666134-25-000003 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011915 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001666134-24-000003 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001666134-25-000003 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011915 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001666134-24-000003 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001666134-25-000003 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011915 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001666134-24-000003 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001666134-25-000003 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011915 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001666134-24-000003 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001666134-25-000003 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011915 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)