BKV Corp

BKVdata completeness 100%4 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'; no data for concept 'dividendsPaid'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

BKV Corp earns about 14% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 40% over 4 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $17.9 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.66B1$1.01B2$805.7M2$1.14B2
Net income$410.1M3$123.6M4−$138.7M4$179.2M4
Operating cash flow$349.2M5$260.3M6$115.4M6$280.4M6
Capital expenditure$201.5M7$105.4M7$305.1M7
Free cash flow (derived)$58.8M6$10M6−$24.7M6
Total debt$579M8$1.72B9$2.28B9
Cash & equivalents$166.5M10$105M11$81.2M11$248.4M11
Diluted shares62.0M64.4M71.3M86.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$228.72
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$20.63
Free cash flow it threw off
−$2.85
Debt you’d be carrying
$262.17

10 shares is a claim on $228.72 of net worth that earned you $20.63 and generated −$2.85 of cash last year, against $262.17 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
14% avg · 4y
FY22 47%FY23 7%FY24 -4%FY25 5%

It earned an average 14% on invested capital over 4 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+40% shares · 4y

Share count is up 40% over 4 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 293% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$10M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$10M
Earnings Power Value
$17.9
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$151.4M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$30.75
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-015622 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K/A · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-098821 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-015622 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K/A · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-098821 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-015622 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 10-K/A · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-098821 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K/A · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-098821 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-015622 (LongTermDebt)
  9. 10-K/A · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-098821 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  10. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-098821 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  11. 10-K/A · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-098821 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)