BKV Corp
BKVdata completeness 100%4 fiscal years on fileData notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'; no data for concept 'dividendsPaid'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'
BKV Corp earns about 14% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 40% over 4 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $17.9 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.66B1 | $1.01B2 | $805.7M2 | $1.14B2 |
| Net income | $410.1M3 | $123.6M4 | −$138.7M4 | $179.2M4 |
| Operating cash flow | $349.2M5 | $260.3M6 | $115.4M6 | $280.4M6 |
| Capital expenditure | — | $201.5M7 | $105.4M7 | $305.1M7 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | — | $58.8M6 | $10M6 | −$24.7M6 |
| Total debt | — | $579M8 | $1.72B9 | $2.28B9 |
| Cash & equivalents | $166.5M10 | $105M11 | $81.2M11 | $248.4M11 |
| Diluted shares | 62.0M | 64.4M | 71.3M | 86.8M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $228.72 of net worth that earned you $20.63 and generated −$2.85 of cash last year, against $262.17 of debt.
It earned an average 14% on invested capital over 4 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is up 40% over 4 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 293% over the same window.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth5.0%
- fcfBase$10M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth5.0%
- fcfBase$10M
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$151.4M
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-015622 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K/A · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-098821 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-015622 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K/A · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-098821 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-015622 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K/A · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-098821 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K/A · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-098821 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-015622 (LongTermDebt)
- 10-K/A · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-098821 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-098821 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
- 10-K/A · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-098821 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)