MeritValue

BlackSky Technology Inc.

BKSYdata completeness 88%8 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'capex'

The thesis, from the filings

BlackSky Technology Inc. earns about -36% on invested capital, and has bought back 54% of its shares over 5 years. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$34.1M1$65.4M2$94.5M3$102.1M4$106.6M4
Net income−$245.6M5−$74.2M6−$53.9M7−$57.2M8−$70.3M8
Operating cash flow−$53.9M9−$44.5M10−$17.4M11−$6.38M12−$28.3M12
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt$142.8M13$152.4M14$167M15$215.3M16$402.2M16
Cash & equivalents$165.6M17$34.2M18$32.8M19$13.1M20$42.4M20
Diluted shares72.5M117.8M16.9M21.4M33.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$28.26
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$20.93
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$119.8

10 shares is a claim on $28.26 of net worth that earned you −$20.93 last year, against $119.8 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-36% avg · 5y
FY21 -120%FY22 -23%FY23 -15%FY24 -12%FY25 -10%

It earned an average -36% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−54% shares · 5y

Share count is down 54% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 182% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001753539-23-000020 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001753539-24-000032 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001753539-25-000030 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001753539-26-000032 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001753539-23-000020 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001753539-24-000032 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001753539-25-000030 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001753539-26-000032 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001753539-23-000020 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001753539-24-000032 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001753539-25-000030 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001753539-26-000032 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001753539-23-000020 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001753539-24-000032 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001753539-25-000030 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001753539-26-000032 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001753539-23-000020 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001753539-24-000032 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001753539-25-000030 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001753539-26-000032 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)