MeritValue

Booking Holdings Inc.

BKNGdata completeness 88%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Booking Holdings Inc. earns about 33% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 21% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $7,264.43 and $13,803.73 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$11B1$17.1B2$21.4B3$23.7B3$26.9B3
Net income—————
Operating cash flow$2.82B4$6.55B5$7.34B6$8.32B6$9.41B6
Capital expenditure$304M7$368M8$345M9$429M9$322M9
Free cash flow (derived)$2.52B4$6.19B5$7B6$7.89B6$9.09B6
Total debt$10.9B10$25B11$28.4B12$33.2B13$37.5B13
Cash & equivalents$11.1B14$12.2B15$12.1B16$16.2B17$17.2B17
Diluted shares41.4M40.1M36.5M34.1M32.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
−$1,709
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
—
Free cash flow it threw off
$2,784.09
Debt you’d be carrying
$11,480.74

10 shares is a claim on −$1,709 of net worth that generated $2,784.09 of cash last year, against $11,480.74 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
33% avg · 5y
FY21 24%FY22 22%FY23 37%FY24 45%FY25 37%

It earned about 33% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−21% shares · 5y

Share count is down 21% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 243% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $7,264.43 and $13,803.73 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$13,803.73
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$7.89B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$7,264.43
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$7.89B
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
only 0 years of net income (need ≥3)
Graham Number
not applicable
book value / share count missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $7,264.43
The three cases
Bear0.0%$2,834.6
Base20.0%$7,264.43
Bull20.0%$7,264.43

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001075531-24-000014 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001075531-25-000010 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001075531-26-000009 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001075531-24-000014 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001075531-25-000010 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001075531-26-000009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001075531-24-000014 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001075531-25-000010 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001075531-26-000009 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001075531-23-000016 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001075531-24-000014 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001075531-25-000010 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001075531-26-000009 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001075531-23-000016 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001075531-24-000014 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001075531-25-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001075531-26-000009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)