MeritValue

Bakkt, Inc.

BKKTdata completeness 75%5 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Bakkt, Inc. earns about -247% on equity, but has diluted owners by 325% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2020FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$28.5M1$56.2M2$727M3$3.44B3$2.34B3
Net income−$79.6M4−$578.1M5−$74.9M6−$46.7M6−$107.2M6
Operating cash flow−$30.9M7−$117.6M8−$60.7M9−$21.2M9−$153.4M9
Capital expenditure$20.6M10$30.5M11$9.43M11$3.09M11—
Free cash flow (derived)−$51.5M7−$148.1M8−$70.1M9−$24.3M9—
Total debt$012————
Cash & equivalents$75.4M13$98.3M14$52.9M15$39M15$27M15
Diluted shares—2.8M3.6M5.9M12.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$93.29
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$88.68
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $93.29 of net worth that earned you −$88.68 last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-247% avg · 5y
FY20 —FY22 -601%FY23 -155%FY24 -138%FY25 -95%

It earned an average -247% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+325% shares · 5y

Share count is up 325% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001820302-22-000005 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-013959 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-019870 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001820302-22-000005 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-013959 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-019870 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001820302-22-000005 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-013959 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-019870 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001820302-22-000005 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-013959 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K/A · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001193125-21-350608 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001820302-22-000005 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-013959 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-019870 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)