MeritValue

BLACK HILLS CORP /SD/

BKHdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'gainsOnRealEstateSales'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'

The thesis, from the filings

BLACK HILLS CORP /SD/ earns about 6% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 16% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $36.78 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.93B1$2.54B2$2.3B3$2.1B3$2.29B3
Net income$236.7M4$258.4M5$262.2M6$273.1M6$291.6M6
Operating cash flow−$64.6M7$584.8M8$944.4M9$719.3M9$673.4M9
Capital expenditure$677.5M10$604.4M11$555.6M12$744.2M12$819.8M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$742.1M7−$19.6M8$388.8M9−$24.9M9−$146.4M9
Total debt$4.55B13$4.67B14$4.4B15$4.38B16$4.7B16
Cash & equivalents$8.92M17$21.4M18$86.6M19$16.1M20$182.8M20
Diluted shares63.3M73.2M67.1M69.9M73.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$522.35
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$39.84
Free cash flow it threw off
−$20
Debt you’d be carrying
$642.23

10 shares is a claim on $522.35 of net worth that earned you $39.84 and generated −$20 of cash last year, against $642.23 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
6% avg · 5y
FY21 5%FY22 5%FY23 6%FY24 6%FY25 6%

It earned an average 6% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+16% shares · 5y

Share count is up 16% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
$36.78
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$262.2M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$67.34
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-015090 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-018647 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-046028 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-015090 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-018647 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-046028 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-015090 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-018647 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-046028 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-015090 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-018647 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-046028 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-002759 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-015090 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-018647 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-046028 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-002759 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-015090 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-018647 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-046028 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)