BUCKLE INC

BKEdata completeness 88%18 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

BUCKLE INC earns about 207% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 3% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $44.95 and $62.91 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025FY 2026
Revenue$1.29B1$1.35B2$1.26B3$1.22B3$1.3B3
Net income$254.8M4$254.6M5$219.9M6$195.5M6$209.7M6
Operating cash flow$311.8M7$242.4M8$254.6M9$242M9$251.1M9
Capital expenditure$19.1M10$30.4M11$37.3M12$42.3M12$45.4M12
Free cash flow (derived)$292.7M7$212M8$217.4M9$199.7M9$205.8M9
Total debt
Cash & equivalents$254M13$252.1M14$268.2M14$266.9M14$249.5M14
Diluted shares49.4M49.6M50.0M50.3M50.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$83.75
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$41.37
Free cash flow it threw off
$40.59
Debt you’d be carrying

10 shares is a claim on $83.75 of net worth that earned you $41.37 and generated $40.59 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
207% avg · 5y
FY22 432%FY23 205%FY24 152%FY25 125%FY26 120%

It earned about 207% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+3% shares · 5y

Share count is up 3% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $44.95 and $62.91 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$58.54
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$205.8M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$62.91
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$205.8M
Earnings Power Value
$44.95
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$219.9M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$27.93
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $62.91
The three cases
Bear0.0%$62.91
Base0.0%$62.91
Bull5.0%$76.95

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0000885245-24-000051 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0000885245-25-000052 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0000885245-26-000012 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0000885245-24-000051 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0000885245-25-000052 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0000885245-26-000012 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0000885245-24-000051 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0000885245-25-000052 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0000885245-26-000012 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0000885245-24-000051 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0000885245-25-000052 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0000885245-26-000012 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0000885245-25-000052 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0000885245-26-000012 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)