MeritValue

Brookdale Senior Living Inc.

BKDdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Brookdale Senior Living Inc. earns about -1% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 27% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$2.76B1$2.83B2$3.02B3$3.13B3$3.19B3
Net income−$99.3M4−$238.4M5−$189M6−$201.9M6−$262.7M6
Operating cash flow−$94.6M7$3.28M8$162.9M9$166.2M9$218M9
Capital expenditure$176.7M10$196.9M11$233.2M12$201.3M12$201.5M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$271.3M7−$193.6M8−$70.3M9−$35.1M9$16.5M9
Total debt$7.68B13$7.7B14$7.39B15$8.13B16$8.58B16
Cash & equivalents$347M17$398.9M18$278M19$308.9M20$279.1M20
Diluted shares185.0M190.5M225.2M227.5M235.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
−$1.9
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$11.17
Free cash flow it threw off
$0.7
Debt you’d be carrying
$365.04

10 shares is a claim on −$1.9 of net worth that earned you −$11.17 and generated $0.7 of cash last year, against $365.04 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-1% avg · 5y
FY21 1%FY22 -0%FY23 1%FY24 -2%FY25 -3%

It earned an average -1% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+27% shares · 5y

Share count is up 27% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 12% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001332349-24-000041 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001332349-25-000037 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001332349-26-000032 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001332349-24-000041 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001332349-25-000037 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001332349-26-000032 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001332349-24-000041 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001332349-25-000037 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001332349-26-000032 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001332349-24-000041 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001332349-25-000037 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001332349-26-000032 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001332349-23-000047 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001332349-24-000041 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001332349-25-000037 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001332349-26-000032 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001332349-23-000047 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001332349-24-000041 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001332349-25-000037 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001332349-26-000032 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)