MeritValue

BJs RESTAURANTS INC

BJRIdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'gainsOnRealEstateSales'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'

The thesis, from the filings

BJs RESTAURANTS INC earns about 1% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 2% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $7.57 and $17.91 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2023FY 2024FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.09B1$1.28B2$1.33B3$1.36B3$1.4B3
Net income−$3.61M4$4.08M5$19.7M6$16.7M6$48.8M6
Operating cash flow$64.3M7$51.1M8$105.8M9$101.5M9$110.5M9
Capital expenditure$42.2M10$78.6M11$98.9M12$76.9M12$69.6M12
Free cash flow (derived)$22.1M7−$27.5M8$6.92M9$24.6M9$40.9M9
Total debt$50M13$60M14$68M15$66.5M16$85M16
Cash & equivalents$38.5M17$24.9M18$29.1M19$26.1M20$23.8M20
Diluted shares23.2M23.7M23.9M23.8M22.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$161.87
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$21.58
Free cash flow it threw off
$18.08
Debt you’d be carrying
$37.57

10 shares is a claim on $161.87 of net worth that earned you $21.58 and generated $18.08 of cash last year, against $37.57 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
1% avg · 5y
FY21 -6%FY23 -2%FY24 1%FY24 1%FY25 10%

It earned about 1% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−2% shares · 5y

Share count is down 2% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 70% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $7.57 and $17.91 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$17.91
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$24.6M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$16.31
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$24.6M
Earnings Power Value
$7.57
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$16.7M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$29.03
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)9.02%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $16.31
The three cases
Bear0.0%$12.61
Base5.0%$16.31
Bull10.0%$20.74

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-28 · accession 0000950170-24-021413 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-03 · accession 0000950170-25-027899 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-01-02 · accession 0001193125-26-083331 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-28 · accession 0000950170-24-021413 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-03 · accession 0000950170-25-027899 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-01-02 · accession 0001193125-26-083331 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-28 · accession 0000950170-24-021413 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-03 · accession 0000950170-25-027899 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-01-02 · accession 0001193125-26-083331 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-28 · accession 0000950170-24-021413 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-03 · accession 0000950170-25-027899 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-01-02 · accession 0001193125-26-083331 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-28 · accession 0000950170-23-004813 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-03 · accession 0000950170-24-021413 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-01-02 · accession 0000950170-25-027899 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-083331 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-28 · accession 0000950170-23-004813 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-03 · accession 0000950170-24-021413 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-01-02 · accession 0000950170-25-027899 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-083331 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)