MeritValue

BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc.

BJdata completeness 100%10 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'gainsOnRealEstateSales'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'

The thesis, from the filings

BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc. earns about 19% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 4% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $23.39 and $40.72 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025FY 2026
Revenue$16.7B1$19.3B2$20B3$20.5B3$21.5B3
Net income$426.7M4$513.2M5$523.7M6$534.4M6$578.4M6
Operating cash flow$831.7M7$788.2M8$718.9M9$900.9M9$1.03B9
Capital expenditure$323.6M10$397.8M11$467.1M12$588M12$702M12
Free cash flow (derived)$508.1M7$390.4M8$251.8M9$312.9M9$328M9
Total debt$1.5B13$2.11B14$1.43B15$1.15B16$1.04B16
Cash & equivalents$45.4M17$33.9M18$36M19$28.3M20$46.2M20
Diluted shares138.0M136.5M135.1M133.6M132.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$166.41
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$43.79
Free cash flow it threw off
$24.84
Debt you’d be carrying
$78.61

10 shares is a claim on $166.41 of net worth that earned you $43.79 and generated $24.84 of cash last year, against $78.61 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
19% avg · 5y
FY22 22%FY23 17%FY24 20%FY25 19%FY26 19%

It earned about 19% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−4% shares · 5y

Share count is down 4% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 31% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $23.39 and $40.72 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$23.39
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$312.9M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$25.89
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$312.9M
Earnings Power Value
$40.72
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$523.7M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$40.87
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)9.02%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $25.89
The three cases
Bear0.0%$25.89
Base0.0%$25.89
Bull5.0%$33.96

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0001531152-24-000026 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0001531152-25-000013 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0001531152-26-000007 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0001531152-24-000026 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0001531152-25-000013 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0001531152-26-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0001531152-24-000026 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0001531152-25-000013 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0001531152-26-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0001531152-24-000026 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0001531152-25-000013 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0001531152-26-000007 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0001531152-23-000026 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0001531152-24-000026 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0001531152-25-000013 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2025-02-01 · accession 0001531152-26-000007 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0001531152-23-000026 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0001531152-24-000026 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0001531152-25-000013 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2025-02-01 · accession 0001531152-26-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)