Birkenstock Holding plc

BIRKdata completeness 88%4 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

Birkenstock Holding plc earns about 9% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 2% over 4 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between €10.52 and €99.2 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue€1.24B1€1.49B1€1.8B1€2.1B2
Net income€187.1M3€75M4€191.6M4€348.3M4
Operating cash flow€234.1M5€358.7M6€428.7M6€384.3M6
Capital expenditure€70.8M7€102.2M8€65.4M8€76.7M8
Free cash flow (derived)€163.4M5€256.6M6€363.3M6€307.6M6
Total debt€1.84B9
Cash & equivalents€307.1M10€344.4M10€355.8M10€329.1M10
Diluted shares182.7M182.7M187.8M186.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
€145.98
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
€18.68
Free cash flow it threw off
€16.49
Debt you’d be carrying

10 shares is a claim on €145.98 of net worth that earned you €18.68 and generated €16.49 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
9% avg · 4y
FY22 9%FY23 2%FY24 8%FY25 15%

It earned about 9% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+2% shares · 4y

Share count is up 2% over 4 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between €10.52 and €99.2 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
€99.2
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth19.9%
  • fcfBase€307.6M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
€55.27
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth19.9%
  • fcfBase€307.6M
Earnings Power Value
€10.52
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings€189.4M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
€24.78
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years19.9%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth €55.27
The three cases
Bear0.0%€25.33
Base19.9%€55.27
Bull20.0%€55.53

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 19.9%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000950170-24-137610 (Revenue)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2025-09-30 · accession 0001193125-25-323599 (RevenueFromContractsWithCustomers)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000950170-24-137610 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001193125-25-323599 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000950170-24-137610 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001193125-25-323599 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000950170-24-137610 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001193125-25-323599 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000950170-24-005395 (Borrowings)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001193125-25-323599 (CashAndCashEquivalents)