MeritValue

BioAge Labs, Inc.

BIOAdata completeness 100%3 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

BioAge Labs, Inc. earns about -26% on equity, but has diluted owners by 2048% over 3 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue—$01$9M1
Net income−$63.9M2−$71.1M3−$80.6M3
Operating cash flow−$37.4M4−$51.5M5−$81.6M5
Capital expenditure$166,0006$366,0007$719,0007
Free cash flow (derived)−$37.5M4−$51.9M5−$82.3M5
Total debt$14.2M8$17M9$2.65M9
Cash & equivalents$21.6M10$354.3M11$188.9M11
Diluted shares1.7M10.7M35.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$75.71
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$22.43
Free cash flow it threw off
−$22.92
Debt you’d be carrying
$0.74

10 shares is a claim on $75.71 of net worth that earned you −$22.43 and generated −$22.92 of cash last year, against $0.74 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-26% avg · 3y
FY23 —FY24 -22%FY25 -30%

It earned an average -26% on equity over 3 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+2048% shares · 3y

Share count is up 2048% over 3 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 81% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-120873 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-042759 (NetIncomeLoss)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-120873 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-042759 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-120873 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-042759 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-120873 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-042759 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-120873 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-042759 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-120873 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)