MeritValue

BILL Holdings, Inc.

BILLdata completeness 100%9 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'gainsOnRealEstateSales'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'; no data for concept 'dividendsPaid'

The thesis, from the filings

BILL Holdings, Inc. earns about -2% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $52.62 and $57.73 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025FY 2026
Revenue$642M1$1.06B2$1.29B3$1.46B3$1.65B3
Net income−$326.4M4−$223.7M5−$28.9M6$23.8M6−$11.2M6
Operating cash flow−$18.1M7$187.8M8$278.8M9$350.6M9$415.8M9
Capital expenditure$5.38M10$7.59M11$976,00012$4.34M12$3.33M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$23.5M7$180.2M8$277.8M9$346.3M9$412.5M9
Total debt$1.77B13$1.84B14$914M15$1.71B16$1.84B16
Cash & equivalents$1.6B17$1.62B18$985.9M19$1.04B19$1.03B19
Diluted shares101.8M106.0M106.1M103.9M99.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$353.35
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$1.13
Free cash flow it threw off
$41.28
Debt you’d be carrying
$183.76

10 shares is a claim on $353.35 of net worth that earned you −$1.13 and generated $41.28 of cash last year, against $183.76 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-2% avg · 5y
FY22 -6%FY23 -4%FY24 -1%FY25 0%FY26 -1%

It earned about -2% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−2% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $52.62 and $57.73 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$57.73
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$346.3M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$52.62
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$346.3M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)9.02%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $52.62
The three cases
Bear0.0%$40.81
Base5.0%$52.62
Bull10.0%$66.74

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001786352-24-000035 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001786352-25-000037 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001628280-26-058238 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001786352-24-000035 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001786352-25-000037 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001628280-26-058238 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001786352-24-000035 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001786352-25-000037 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001628280-26-058238 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001786352-24-000035 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001786352-25-000037 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001628280-26-058238 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001786352-23-000054 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001786352-24-000035 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001786352-25-000037 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2025-06-30 · accession 0001628280-26-058238 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001786352-24-000035 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001786352-25-000037 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001628280-26-058238 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)