MeritValue

Burke & Herbert Financial Services Corp.

BHRBdata completeness 88%5 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'revenue'

The thesis, from the filings

Burke & Herbert Financial Services Corp. earns about 22% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 103% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $24.86 and $310.73 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue—————
Net income$36.2M1$44M2$22.7M3$35.7M3$117.3M3
Operating cash flow$55M4$61.1M5$42.5M6$85.8M6$107.9M6
Capital expenditure$1.08M7$23.1M8$14.2M9$4.57M9$11.7M9
Free cash flow (derived)$53.9M4$38M5$28.3M6$81.2M6$96.2M6
Total debt——$272M10$365M11$450M11
Cash & equivalents$77.4M12$50.3M13$44.5M13$135.3M13$289.1M13
Diluted shares7.4M7.5M7.5M12.4M15.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$566.97
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$77.82
Free cash flow it threw off
$63.84
Debt you’d be carrying
$298.53

10 shares is a claim on $566.97 of net worth that earned you $77.82 and generated $63.84 of cash last year, against $298.53 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
22% avg · 5y
FY21 13%FY22 23%FY23 13%FY24 25%FY25 35%

It earned about 22% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+103% shares · 5y

Share count is up 103% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 65% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $24.86 and $310.73 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$310.73
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$81.2M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$165.03
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$81.2M
Earnings Power Value
$24.86
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$36.2M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$99.24
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $165.03
The three cases
Bear0.0%$66.32
Base20.0%$165.03
Bull20.0%$165.03

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001964333-24-000079 (NetIncomeLoss)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001964333-25-000105 (NetIncomeLoss)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001964333-26-000016 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001964333-24-000079 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001964333-25-000105 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001964333-26-000016 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001964333-24-000079 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001964333-25-000105 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001964333-26-000016 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001964333-25-000105 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001964333-26-000016 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001964333-25-000105 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001964333-26-000016 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)