MeritValue

Braemar Hotels & Resorts Inc.

BHRdata completeness 100%14 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Braemar Hotels & Resorts Inc. earns about 4% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 28% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$427.5M1$669.6M2$739.3M3$728.4M3$704M3
Net income−$26.7M4$17.8M5−$27M6−$1.69M6−$22.3M6
Operating cash flow$64M7$109.5M8$84.7M9$66.8M9$40.8M9
Capital expenditure$17.6M10$354.4M10$010$70.6M11$77.9M11
Free cash flow (derived)$46.3M7−$245M8$84.7M9−$3.78M9−$37.1M9
Total debt$1.17B12$1.33B13$1.16B14$1.21B15$1.1B15
Cash & equivalents$216M16$261.5M17$85.6M17$135.5M17$124.4M17
Diluted shares52.7M69.7M66.0M66.5M67.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$20.51
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$3.3
Free cash flow it threw off
−$5.49
Debt you’d be carrying
$163.18

10 shares is a claim on $20.51 of net worth that earned you −$3.3 and generated −$5.49 of cash last year, against $163.18 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
4% avg · 5y
FY21 -0%FY22 4%FY23 4%FY24 9%FY25 5%

It earned an average 4% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+28% shares · 5y

Share count is up 28% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001574085-24-000033 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001574085-25-000024 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001574085-26-000038 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001574085-24-000033 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001574085-25-000024 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001574085-26-000038 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001574085-24-000033 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001574085-25-000024 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001574085-26-000038 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001574085-24-000033 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001574085-26-000038 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001574085-23-000041 (LongTermDebt)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001574085-24-000033 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001574085-25-000024 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001574085-26-000038 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001574085-25-000024 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001574085-26-000038 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)