BHP Group Ltd
BHPdata completeness 100%10 fiscal years on fileData notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'depreciationAmortization'; no data for concept 'gainsOnRealEstateSales'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'; no data for concept 'dividendsPaid'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'
BHP Group Ltd earns about 29% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 72% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $22.86 and $31.01 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $56.9B1 | $65.1B2 | $53.8B3 | $55.7B3 | $51.3B3 |
| Net income | $11.3B4 | $30.9B5 | $12.9B6 | $7.9B6 | $9.02B6 |
| Operating cash flow | $27.2B7 | $32.2B8 | $18.7B9 | $20.7B9 | $18.7B9 |
| Capital expenditure | $5.61B10 | $5.86B11 | $6.73B12 | $8.82B12 | $9.4B12 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $21.6B7 | $26.3B8 | $12B9 | $11.8B9 | $9.29B9 |
| Total debt | $17.1B13 | $13.9B14 | $19.3B15 | $17.6B16 | $21.5B16 |
| Cash & equivalents | $15.2B17 | $17.2B18 | $12.4B19 | $12.5B19 | $11.9B19 |
| Diluted shares | 2.95B | 5.07B | 5.07B | 5.07B | 5.08B |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $93.9 of net worth that earned you $17.77 and generated $18.31 of cash last year, against $42.44 of debt.
It earned about 29% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is up 72% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 26% over the same window.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $22.86 and $31.01 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth0.0%
- fcfBase$11.8B
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth0.0%
- fcfBase$11.8B
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$11.3B
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $31.01 |
| Base | 0.0% | $31.01 |
| Bull | 5.0% | $38.96 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 20-F · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001193125-23-228105 (Revenue)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001193125-24-210297 (Revenue)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001193125-25-185641 (Revenue)
- 20-F · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001193125-23-228105 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001193125-24-210297 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001193125-25-185641 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
- 20-F · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001193125-23-228105 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001193125-24-210297 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001193125-25-185641 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001193125-23-228105 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001193125-24-210297 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001193125-25-185641 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001193125-22-238375 (Borrowings)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001193125-23-228105 (Borrowings)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001193125-24-210297 (Borrowings)
- 20-F · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001193125-25-185641 (Borrowings)
- 20-F · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001193125-23-228105 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001193125-24-210297 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001193125-25-185641 (CashAndCashEquivalents)