MeritValue

B&G Foods, Inc.

BGSdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'

The thesis, from the filings

B&G Foods, Inc. earns about -1% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 21% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $28.04 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2026
Revenue$2.06B1$2.16B2$2.06B3$1.93B3$1.83B3
Net income$67.4M4−$11.4M5−$66.2M6−$251.3M6−$43.3M6
Operating cash flow$93.9M7$5.96M8$247.8M9$130.9M9$101.4M9
Capital expenditure$43.6M10$22.3M11$25.7M12$27.3M12$30.6M12
Free cash flow (derived)$50.3M7−$16.3M8$222.1M9$103.7M9$70.7M9
Total debt$4.54B13$4.78B14$4.09B15$4.04B16$3.9B16
Cash & equivalents$33.7M17$45.4M18$41.1M19$50.6M20$56.3M20
Diluted shares65.7M70.5M74.3M79.0M79.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$56.79
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$5.42
Free cash flow it threw off
$8.87
Debt you’d be carrying
$489.02

10 shares is a claim on $56.79 of net worth that earned you −$5.42 and generated $8.87 of cash last year, against $489.02 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-1% avg · 5y
FY22 1%FY22 -0%FY23 -1%FY24 -6%FY26 -1%

It earned an average -1% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+21% shares · 5y

Share count is up 21% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 14% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$28.04
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$103.7M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$103.7M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0001558370-24-001996 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001513 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001104659-26-022961 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0001558370-24-001996 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001513 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001104659-26-022961 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0001558370-24-001996 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001513 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001104659-26-022961 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0001558370-23-002392 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001513 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001104659-26-022961 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0001558370-23-002392 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001996 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001558370-25-001513 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-28 · accession 0001104659-26-022961 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0001558370-23-002392 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001996 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001558370-25-001513 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-28 · accession 0001104659-26-022961 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)