MeritValue

BGIN BLOCKCHAIN Ltd

BGINdata completeness 88%3 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

BGIN BLOCKCHAIN Ltd earns about -94% on invested capital, with a roughly flat share count. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $6.28 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$219.8M1$192.2M1$15.3M1
Net income$139.8M2$66.1M2−$177M2
Operating cash flow−$31.3M3−$199.3M3−$166.9M3
Capital expenditure$6.69M4$13M4$4.19M4
Free cash flow (derived)−$38M3−$212.3M3−$171.1M3
Total debt———
Cash & equivalents$46.7M5$114.8M6$26.3M6
Diluted shares107.8M107.8M109.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$5
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$16.23
Free cash flow it threw off
−$15.69
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $5 of net worth that earned you −$16.23 and generated −$15.69 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-94% avg · 3y
FY23 137%FY24 70%FY25 -489%

It earned an average -94% on invested capital over 3 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+1% shares · 3y

Share count is roughly flat over 3 years — little dilution, little buyback.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
$6.28
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$66.1M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-048532 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-048532 (NetIncomeLoss)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-048532 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-048532 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-048532 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-048532 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)