MeritValue

BGC Group, Inc.

BGCdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'

The thesis, from the filings

BGC Group, Inc. earns about 5% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 11% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $2.63 and $18.21 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.66B1$1.41B2$1.61B3$1.81B3$2.44B3
Net income$153.5M4$58.9M4$38.8M4$123.2M4$155M5
Operating cash flow$417.2M6$224.4M7$405.2M8$315.4M8$394.4M8
Capital expenditure$10.1M9$10.6M10$14.9M11$29.6M11$21.5M11
Free cash flow (derived)$407.1M6$213.8M7$390.3M8$285.7M8$372.9M8
Total debt$2.1B12$2.1B13$2.13B14$2.48B15$3.33B15
Cash & equivalents$553.6M16$485M17$655.6M18$711.6M19$851.5M19
Diluted shares540.0M499.4M490.0M479.1M480.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$20.22
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$3.22
Free cash flow it threw off
$7.75
Debt you’d be carrying
$69.32

10 shares is a claim on $20.22 of net worth that earned you $3.22 and generated $7.75 of cash last year, against $69.32 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
5% avg · 5y
FY21 10%FY22 4%FY23 4%FY24 5%FY25 4%

It earned about 5% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−11% shares · 5y

Share count is down 11% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 59% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $2.63 and $18.21 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$18.21
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth11.1%
  • fcfBase$372.9M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$12.35
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth11.1%
  • fcfBase$372.9M
Earnings Power Value
$2.63
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$123.2M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$3.76
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years11.1%
Discount rate (WACC)9.02%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $12.35
The three cases
Bear0.0%$5.77
Base11.1%$12.35
Bull16.1%$16.25

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 11.1%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-007951 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-009421 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-013162 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-048621 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-013162 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-007951 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-009421 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-013162 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-007951 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-009421 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-013162 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-005839 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-007951 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-009421 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-013162 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-005839 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-007951 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-009421 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-013162 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)