MeritValue

Business First Bancshares, Inc.

BFSTdata completeness 88%13 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Business First Bancshares, Inc. earns about 39% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 43% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $22.84 and $122.2 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$6.81M1$8.27M2$9.7M3$10.6M3$10.7M3
Net income$52.1M4$54.3M5$71M6$65.1M6$87.9M6
Operating cash flow$56.4M7$69.6M8$91M9$61.4M9$92.1M9
Capital expenditure$3.97M10$7.78M11$11.6M12$1.56M12$66,00012
Free cash flow (derived)$52.5M7$61.8M8$79.3M9$59.8M9$92M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$68.4M13$152.7M14$226.1M15$319.1M16$411.2M16
Diluted shares20.6M22.8M25.3M26.5M29.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$303.56
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$29.74
Free cash flow it threw off
$31.14
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $303.56 of net worth that earned you $29.74 and generated $31.14 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
39% avg · 5y
FY21 18%FY22 19%FY23 43%FY24 51%FY25 63%

It earned about 39% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+43% shares · 5y

Share count is up 43% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $22.84 and $122.2 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$122.2
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth14.8%
  • fcfBase$79.3M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$85.2
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth14.8%
  • fcfBase$79.3M
Earnings Power Value
$22.84
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$65.1M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$43.65
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years14.8%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $85.2
The three cases
Bear0.0%$52.27
Base14.8%$85.2
Bull19.8%$100.67

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 14.8%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-006270 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001624322-25-000011 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001624322-26-000018 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-006270 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001624322-25-000011 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001624322-26-000018 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-006270 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001624322-25-000011 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001624322-26-000018 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-006270 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001624322-25-000011 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001624322-26-000018 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-005213 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-006270 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001624322-25-000011 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001624322-26-000018 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)