MeritValue

SAUL CENTERS, INC.

BFSdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'incomeTaxExpense'; no data for concept 'pretaxIncome'

The thesis, from the filings

SAUL CENTERS, INC. earns about 13% on equity, but has diluted owners by 2% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $21.46 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$239.2M1$245.9M2$257.2M3$268.8M3$289.8M3
Net income$48.4M4$50.2M5$52.7M6$50.6M6$37.5M6
Operating cash flow$118.4M7$121.2M8$117.7M9$121.2M9$99.8M9
Capital expenditure$55.9M10$116.9M10———
Free cash flow (derived)$62.5M7$4.26M8———
Total debt$237.4M11$320.8M12$332.3M13$455.8M14$468.4M15
Cash & equivalents$14.6M16$13.3M17$8.41M18$10.3M19$8.74M19
Diluted shares23.7M24.0M24.1M24.1M24.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$127
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$15.48
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$193.27

10 shares is a claim on $127 of net worth that earned you $15.48 last year, against $193.27 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
13% avg · 5y
FY21 12%FY22 13%FY23 15%FY24 15%FY25 12%

It earned an average 13% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+2% shares · 5y

Share count is up 2% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 97% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$22.2M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$22.2M
Earnings Power Value
$21.46
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$50.2M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$17.65
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000907254-24-000020 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000907254-25-000022 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000907254-26-000006 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000907254-24-000020 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000907254-25-000022 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000907254-26-000006 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000907254-24-000020 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000907254-25-000022 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000907254-26-000006 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000907254-23-000009 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000907254-22-000014 (LongTermDebt)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000907254-23-000009 (LongTermDebt)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000907254-24-000020 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000907254-25-000022 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0000907254-26-000006 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000907254-23-000009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000907254-24-000020 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000907254-25-000022 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000907254-26-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)