MeritValue

SAUL CENTERS, INC.

BFSdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'incomeTaxExpense'; no data for concept 'pretaxIncome'

The thesis, from the filings

SAUL CENTERS, INC. earns about 13% on equity, but has diluted owners by 2% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $42.51 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$239.2M1$245.9M2$257.2M3$268.8M3$289.8M3
Net income$48.4M4$50.2M5$52.7M6$50.6M6$37.5M6
Operating cash flow$118.4M7$121.2M8$117.7M9$121.2M9$99.8M9
Capital expenditure$55.9M10$116.9M10———
Free cash flow (derived)$62.5M7$4.26M8———
Total debt$237.4M11$320.8M12$332.3M13$455.8M14$468.4M15
Cash & equivalents$14.6M16$13.3M17$8.41M18$10.3M19$8.74M19
Diluted shares23.7M24.0M24.1M24.1M24.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$127
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$15.48
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$193.27

10 shares is a claim on $127 of net worth that earned you $15.48 last year, against $193.27 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
13% avg · 5y
FY21 12%FY22 13%FY23 15%FY24 15%FY25 12%

It earned an average 13% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+2% shares · 5y

Share count is up 2% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 97% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
REIT — real-estate depreciation is an accounting charge on assets that generally appreciate, so it inflates free cash flow and depresses reported earnings and book value at the same time. Every model here reads one of those, and none is a fair base. FFO/AFFO is the applicable measure — see the FFO capitalisation model, which values REITs from it.
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
REIT — real-estate depreciation is an accounting charge on assets that generally appreciate, so it inflates free cash flow and depresses reported earnings and book value at the same time. Every model here reads one of those, and none is a fair base. FFO/AFFO is the applicable measure — see the FFO capitalisation model, which values REITs from it.
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
REIT — real-estate depreciation is an accounting charge on assets that generally appreciate, so it inflates free cash flow and depresses reported earnings and book value at the same time. Every model here reads one of those, and none is a fair base. FFO/AFFO is the applicable measure — see the FFO capitalisation model, which values REITs from it.
FFO · Capitalized
$42.51
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.8%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedFfo$101M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
REIT — real-estate depreciation is an accounting charge on assets that generally appreciate, so it inflates free cash flow and depresses reported earnings and book value at the same time. Every model here reads one of those, and none is a fair base. FFO/AFFO is the applicable measure — see the FFO capitalisation model, which values REITs from it.

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000907254-24-000020 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000907254-25-000022 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000907254-26-000006 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000907254-24-000020 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000907254-25-000022 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000907254-26-000006 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000907254-24-000020 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000907254-25-000022 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000907254-26-000006 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000907254-23-000009 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000907254-22-000014 (LongTermDebt)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000907254-23-000009 (LongTermDebt)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000907254-24-000020 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000907254-25-000022 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0000907254-26-000006 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000907254-23-000009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000907254-24-000020 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000907254-25-000022 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000907254-26-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)