MeritValue

BullFrog AI Holdings, Inc.

BFRGdata completeness 75%5 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'incomeTaxExpense'; no data for concept 'pretaxIncome'

The thesis, from the filings

BullFrog AI Holdings, Inc. earns about -217% on equity, but has diluted owners by 151% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue—$10,0001$65,0002—$116,6703
Net income−$585,8404−$2.8M5−$5.36M6−$6.99M7−$6.5M7
Operating cash flow−$382,4058−$910,8909−$6M10−$5.61M11−$5.52M11
Capital expenditure—$8,74412———
Free cash flow (derived)—−$919,6349———
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$10,01413$57,67014$2.62M15$5.44M16$2.18M16
Diluted shares4.1M4.0M6.0M8.2M10.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$2.07
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$6.29
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $2.07 of net worth that earned you −$6.29 last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-217% avg · 5y
FY21 —FY22 —FY23 -207%FY24 -141%FY25 -304%

It earned an average -217% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+151% shares · 5y

Share count is up 151% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 1 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 1 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-011964 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001493152-25-010367 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-011644 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001493152-23-013524 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-011964 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001493152-25-010367 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-011644 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001493152-23-013524 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-011964 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001493152-25-010367 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-011644 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-011964 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-011964 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-011964 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001493152-25-010367 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-011644 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)