MeritValue

Bank First Corp

BFCdata completeness 88%10 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Bank First Corp earns about 59% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 29% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $68.86 and $244.87 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$98.4M1$116.5M2$182.5M3$206.4M3$221.7M3
Net income$45.4M4$45.2M5$74.5M6$65.6M6$71.5M6
Operating cash flow$40.3M7$40M8$52.9M9$65.8M9$62.5M9
Capital expenditure$8.72M10$6.87M11$13.5M12$7.23M12$11.4M12
Free cash flow (derived)$31.6M7$33.1M8$39.5M9$58.6M9$51M9
Total debt$7.96M13————
Cash & equivalents$296.9M14$119.4M15$247.5M16$261.3M17$243.2M17
Diluted shares7.6M8.1M10.2M10.1M9.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$652.51
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$72.46
Free cash flow it threw off
$51.73
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $652.51 of net worth that earned you $72.46 and generated $51.73 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
59% avg · 5y
FY21 153%FY22 16%FY23 30%FY24 47%FY25 49%

It earned about 59% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+29% shares · 5y

Share count is up 29% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $68.86 and $244.87 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$244.87
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth15.5%
  • fcfBase$51M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$165.99
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth15.5%
  • fcfBase$51M
Earnings Power Value
$68.86
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$65.6M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$103.03
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years15.5%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $165.99
The three cases
Bear0.0%$98.55
Base15.5%$165.99
Bull20.0%$193.29

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 15.5%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-002199 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001937 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-021567 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-002199 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001937 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-021567 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-002199 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001937 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-021567 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-002199 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001937 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-021567 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001410578-22-000397 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-003499 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-002199 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001937 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-021567 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)