BRIGHT HORIZONS FAMILY SOLUTIONS INC.
BFAMdata completeness 100%15 fiscal years on fileData notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'gainsOnRealEstateSales'; no data for concept 'dividendsPaid'
BRIGHT HORIZONS FAMILY SOLUTIONS INC. earns about 5% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 6% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $14.49 and $237.02 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.76B1 | $2.02B2 | $2.42B3 | $2.69B3 | $2.93B3 |
| Net income | $70.5M4 | $80.6M5 | $74.2M6 | $140.2M6 | $193.1M6 |
| Operating cash flow | $227.3M7 | $188.5M8 | $256.1M9 | $337.5M9 | $350.7M9 |
| Capital expenditure | $63.5M10 | $70.6M11 | $91M12 | $97.3M12 | $92.2M12 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $163.8M7 | $117.9M8 | $165.1M9 | $240.2M9 | $258.5M9 |
| Total debt | $992.4M13 | $977.6M14 | $962.8M15 | $946.9M16 | $747.6M16 |
| Cash & equivalents | $261M17 | $36.2M18 | $71.6M19 | $110.3M19 | $140.1M19 |
| Diluted shares | 60.9M | 58.5M | 57.9M | 58.5M | 57.4M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $233.23 of net worth that earned you $33.63 and generated $45.03 of cash last year, against $130.2 of debt.
It earned about 5% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is down 6% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 25% — deleveraging.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $14.49 and $237.02 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth20.0%
- fcfBase$240.2M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth20.0%
- fcfBase$240.2M
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$80.6M
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $48.82 |
| Base | 20.0% | $124.9 |
| Bull | 20.0% | $124.9 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437578-24-000007 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437578-25-000007 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437578-26-000006 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437578-24-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437578-25-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437578-26-000006 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437578-24-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437578-25-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437578-26-000006 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437578-24-000007 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437578-25-000007 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437578-26-000006 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437578-23-000005 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437578-24-000007 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437578-25-000007 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437578-26-000006 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437578-24-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437578-25-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437578-26-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)