MeritValue

FRANKLIN RESOURCES INC

BENdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'gainsOnRealEstateSales'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'

The thesis, from the filings

FRANKLIN RESOURCES INC earns about 12% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 5% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $17.52 and $27.18 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$8.43B1$8.28B2$7.85B3$8.48B3$8.77B3
Net income$1.83B4$1.29B5$882.8M6$464.8M6$524.9M6
Operating cash flow$1.25B7$1.96B8$1.09B9$971.3M9$1.07B9
Capital expenditure$79.3M10$90.3M11$148.8M12$177.1M12$154.5M12
Free cash flow (derived)$1.17B7$1.87B8$940.4M9$794.2M9$911.6M9
Total debt$3.4B13$3.38B14$3.05B15$2.78B16$2.36B16
Cash & equivalents$4.65B17$4.78B18$4.4B18$4.41B18$3.57B18
Diluted shares490.6M489.3M490.8M510.3M517.4M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$233.43
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$10.14
Free cash flow it threw off
$17.62
Debt you’d be carrying
$45.65

10 shares is a claim on $233.43 of net worth that earned you $10.14 and generated $17.62 of cash last year, against $45.65 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
12% avg · 5y
FY21 22%FY22 14%FY23 11%FY24 6%FY25 6%

It earned about 12% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+5% shares · 5y

Share count is up 5% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 31% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $17.52 and $27.18 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$25.32
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$911.6M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$27.18
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$911.6M
Earnings Power Value
$17.52
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$882.8M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$21.79
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)9.02%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $27.18
The three cases
Bear0.0%$27.18
Base0.0%$27.18
Bull5.0%$33.19

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000038777-23-000169 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000038777-24-000206 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000038777-25-000238 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000038777-23-000169 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000038777-24-000206 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000038777-25-000238 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000038777-23-000169 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000038777-24-000206 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000038777-25-000238 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000038777-23-000169 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000038777-24-000206 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000038777-25-000238 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000038777-22-000198 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000038777-23-000169 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000038777-24-000206 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-09-30 · accession 0000038777-25-000238 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000038777-21-000205 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000038777-25-000238 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)