KE Holdings Inc.
BEKEdata completeness 88%6 fiscal years on fileData notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'
KE Holdings Inc. earns about 5% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 2% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $1.28 and $5.32 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $12.7B1 | $8.8B2 | $11B3 | $12.8B4 | $13.5B5 |
| Net income | −$82.2M6 | −$201M7 | $828.6M8 | $556.9M9 | $428.1M10 |
| Operating cash flow | $564.2M11 | $1.23B12 | $1.57B13 | $1.29B14 | −$53.8M15 |
| Capital expenditure | $224.4M16 | $115M17 | $123.1M18 | $142.1M19 | $86.9M20 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $339.8M11 | $1.11B12 | $1.45B13 | $1.15B14 | −$140.7M15 |
| Total debt | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cash & equivalents | $2.96B21 | $2.73B22 | $2.69B23 | $1.64B24 | $1.11B24 |
| Diluted shares | 3.55B | 3.57B | 3.61B | 3.54B | 3.47B |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $27.36 of net worth that earned you $1.23 and generated −$0.41 of cash last year.
It earned about 5% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is down 2% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $1.28 and $5.32 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth1.2%
- fcfBase$1.15B
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth1.2%
- fcfBase$1.15B
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$428.1M
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $5.06 |
| Base | 1.2% | $5.32 |
| Bull | 6.2% | $6.52 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 1.2%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
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