KE Holdings Inc.

BEKEdata completeness 88%6 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

KE Holdings Inc. earns about 5% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 2% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $1.28 and $5.32 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$12.7B1$8.8B2$11B3$12.8B4$13.5B5
Net income−$82.2M6−$201M7$828.6M8$556.9M9$428.1M10
Operating cash flow$564.2M11$1.23B12$1.57B13$1.29B14−$53.8M15
Capital expenditure$224.4M16$115M17$123.1M18$142.1M19$86.9M20
Free cash flow (derived)$339.8M11$1.11B12$1.45B13$1.15B14−$140.7M15
Total debt
Cash & equivalents$2.96B21$2.73B22$2.69B23$1.64B24$1.11B24
Diluted shares3.55B3.57B3.61B3.54B3.47B

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$27.36
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$1.23
Free cash flow it threw off
−$0.41
Debt you’d be carrying

10 shares is a claim on $27.36 of net worth that earned you $1.23 and generated −$0.41 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
5% avg · 5y
FY21 2%FY22 1%FY23 13%FY24 7%FY25 5%

It earned about 5% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−2% shares · 5y

Share count is down 2% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $1.28 and $5.32 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$5.12
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth1.2%
  • fcfBase$1.15B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$5.32
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth1.2%
  • fcfBase$1.15B
Earnings Power Value
$1.28
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$428.1M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$2.72
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years1.2%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $5.32
The three cases
Bear0.0%$5.06
Base1.2%$5.32
Bull6.2%$6.52

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 1.2%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-22-047073 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-23-050583 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-052448 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000783 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-048109 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-22-047073 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-23-050583 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-052448 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000783 (NetIncomeLoss)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-048109 (NetIncomeLoss)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-22-047073 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-23-050583 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-052448 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  14. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000783 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  15. 20-F · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-048109 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  16. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-22-047073 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  17. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-23-050583 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  18. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-052448 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  19. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000783 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  20. 20-F · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-048109 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  21. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-23-050583 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  22. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-052448 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  23. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000783 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  24. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-048109 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)