MeritValue

BECTON DICKINSON & CO

BDXdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'

The thesis, from the filings

BECTON DICKINSON & CO earns about 5% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $56.45 and $66.22 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$19.1B1$18.9B2$19.4B3$20.2B3$21.8B3
Net income$2.09B4$1.78B5$1.48B6$1.71B6$1.68B6
Operating cash flow$4.65B7$2.47B8$2.99B9$3.84B9$3.43B9
Capital expenditure$1.19B10$973M11$874M12$725M12$760M12
Free cash flow (derived)$3.45B7$1.5B8$2.12B9$3.12B9$2.67B9
Total debt$17.6B13$16.1B14$15.9B15$20.1B16$19.2B16
Cash & equivalents$2.28B17$1.01B18$1.42B19$1.72B20$641M20
Diluted shares292.1M287.4M288.4M291.0M288.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$880.04
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$58.16
Free cash flow it threw off
$92.54
Debt you’d be carrying
$664.83

10 shares is a claim on $880.04 of net worth that earned you $58.16 and generated $92.54 of cash last year, against $664.83 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
5% avg · 5y
FY21 5%FY22 5%FY23 5%FY24 5%FY25 5%

It earned about 5% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−1% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $56.45 and $66.22 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$56.45
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$2.67B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$66.22
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$2.67B
Earnings Power Value
$60.67
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$1.71B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$107.35
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)9.02%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $66.22
The three cases
Bear0.0%$66.22
Base0.0%$66.22
Bull5.0%$97.75

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000010795-23-000098 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000010795-24-000084 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000010795-25-000099 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000010795-23-000098 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000010795-24-000084 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000010795-25-000099 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000010795-21-000091 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000010795-24-000084 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivitiesContinuingOperations)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000010795-25-000099 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivitiesContinuingOperations)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000010795-23-000098 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000010795-24-000084 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000010795-25-000099 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001628280-22-030686 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000010795-23-000098 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000010795-24-000084 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-09-30 · accession 0000010795-25-000099 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001628280-22-030686 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000010795-23-000098 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000010795-24-000084 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-09-30 · accession 0000010795-25-000099 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)