MeritValue

Black Diamond Therapeutics, Inc.

BDTXdata completeness 75%8 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'pretaxIncome'

The thesis, from the filings

Black Diamond Therapeutics, Inc. earns about -55% on equity, but has diluted owners by 59% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue———$01$70M1
Net income−$125.6M2−$91.2M3−$82.4M4−$69.7M5$22.4M5
Operating cash flow−$100.1M6−$85.1M7−$66.7M8−$62.3M9$29.6M9
Capital expenditure$2.71M10$192,00011$33,00012$012—
Free cash flow (derived)−$102.9M6−$85.3M7−$66.8M8−$62.3M9—
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$65.8M13$34.3M14$56.2M15$36.4M16$21M16
Diluted shares36.2M36.3M44.0M55.0M57.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$19.49
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$3.89
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $19.49 of net worth that earned you $3.89 last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-55% avg · 5y
FY21 -64%FY22 -79%FY23 -71%FY24 -84%FY25 20%

It earned an average -55% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+59% shares · 5y

Share count is up 59% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
$4.14
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001701541-26-000009 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001701541-23-000020 (NetIncomeLoss)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001701541-24-000011 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001701541-25-000016 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001701541-26-000009 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001701541-23-000020 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001701541-24-000011 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001701541-25-000016 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001701541-26-000009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001701541-23-000020 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001701541-24-000011 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001701541-25-000016 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001701541-23-000020 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001701541-24-000011 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001701541-25-000016 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001701541-26-000009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)