MeritValue

Amplify Commodity Trust

BDRYdata completeness 25%9 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'revenue'; no data for concept 'capex'; no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'epsDiluted'; no data for concept 'incomeTaxExpense'; no data for concept 'pretaxIncome'

The thesis, from the filings

Amplify Commodity Trust earns about 3% on equity. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue—————
Net income$59.3M1−$33.4M2−$35.4M3$46.5M4−$17.5M4
Operating cash flow$16.4M5——$65.4M6—
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$50M7—$38.2M8$33M8—
Diluted shares—————

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
3% avg · 5y
FY21 52%FY22 -72%FY23 -54%FY24 113%FY25 -26%

It earned an average 3% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
— shares · 5y

Not enough history to read capital allocation.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001213900-21-047450 (NetIncomeLoss)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001213900-23-079811 (NetIncomeLoss)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001213900-24-082617 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001213900-25-092470 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001213900-21-047450 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001213900-25-092470 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001213900-21-047450 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001213900-25-092470 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)