The thesis, from the filings
Amplify Commodity Trust earns about 27% on equity. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
i. The business — what you’d actually own
| Figure | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | FY 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | — | — | — | — | — |
| Net income | −$33.4M1 | −$35.4M2 | $46.5M3 | −$17.5M4 | $79.2M4 |
| Operating cash flow | — | — | $65.4M5 | — | — |
| Capital expenditure | — | — | — | — | — |
| Free cash flow (derived) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total debt | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cash & equivalents | — | $38.2M6 | $33M6 | — | — |
| Diluted shares | — | — | — | — | — |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
27% avg · 5y
FY22 -72%FY23 -54%FY24 113%FY25 -26%FY26 176%
It earned an average 27% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Management signal · capital allocation
— shares · 5y
Not enough history to read capital allocation.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
Sources — the receipts
- 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001213900-23-079811 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001213900-24-082617 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001213900-25-092470 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2025-06-30 · accession 0001213900-26-103611 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001213900-25-092470 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001213900-25-092470 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)